An Investigation Into the Effects of Various Transport Policies on the Levels of Motorised Traffic in Great Britain in 2006

This Working Paper presents the results of tests of various transport policies which could potentially have a major impact on private car travel and hence gain environmental benefits at a national level. The forecasting methodology was to take OPCS population forecasts for year 2006 in 28 age/sex/area type categories, predict the car available percentage of person in each category in 2006, and then predict trip mileage growth (by three mode types for the 28 categories each subdivided into car available and car non-availahle. For the latter two predications, NTS data for 1985/6 and 1991/3 were compared and projected forward with various adjustments. The effect of individual transport policies on trip rates for individual cells was determined from results derived from other studies, coupled with a consideration of economic theory. Of the tests considered, only the tripling of fuel prices for private mode transport was ahle to hold private mode mileage in 2006 at ahout its 1992 level

Ground state of a polydisperse electrorheological solid: Beyond the dipole approximation

The ground state of an electrorheological (ER) fluid has been studied based on our recently proposed dipole-induced dipole (DID) model. We obtained an analytic expression of the interaction between chains of particles which are of the same or different dielectric constants. The effects of dielectric constants on the structure formation in monodisperse and polydisperse electrorheological fluids are studied in a wide range of dielectric contrasts between the particles and the base fluid. Our results showed that the established body-centered tetragonal ground state in monodisperse ER fluids may become unstable due to a polydispersity in the particle dielectric constants. While our results agree with that of the fully multipole theory, the DID model is much simpler, which offers a basis for computer simulations in polydisperse ER fluids.Comment: Accepted for publications by Phys. Rev.

An integrated climate and water resource climate service prototype for long term water allocation in the Upper Yellow River Region of China

Water Resourcing in China has historically been a complex issue requiring the ability to deal with regular floods, droughts and diverse water needs. Climate change represents another challenge to this sector, albeit one that is not traditionally considered by water managers. In this sector in China water management is predominantly based on historic, seasonal and annual forecast data while multi-annual and (multi-)decadal data are seldom used. In this paper, we present the co-development of a climate service prototype designed to provide water managers with insights into the impacts of climate change on the Upper Yellow River region for the next century. The paper is an outcome from our project that encouraged water resource planners and water resource managers to utilise long-term climate information to understand the uncertainties and the challenges our changing climate is likely to have in the region. Using an interdisciplinary team and adopting a user-centred, co-production approach, a prototype web-based data visualisation tool was developed. The development of the prototype was based on a design specification constructed from the findings of detailed interviews that allowed it to be developed and tested under SARS-CoV-2 pandemic restrictions that prevented the typical development process to be undertaken. The developed prototype presents climate information and communicates uncertainties regarding climate change in the remainder of the century through data sets that are typically used by the water sector in China in a simple, easy to understand style. Models that estimate river levels under different extraction scenarios and results about estimated river level and flow, and flood risk are also presented. The prototype was shown to be successful, as key messages relating to the impact of climate change and the challenges for water resource management could be effectively communicated through the tool interface. Practical implications Understanding the impacts of climate change on water resourcing is complicated and multifaceted. There is a need for better data about what water there is and how it is moving around between and within catchments. Estimates of past, present and future climate variables along with historical measurements of river flow can be used to help visualise some of the uncertainties and changes that may happen in the next 50 years. In addition, there is a need to understand changing water demands and water resource management practices. Current water resource management practices are based on historical conditions and assumptions that are less likely to hold true in a more variable and warmer climate. Communicating how future changes will impact future water resourcing is critical to water resources in a changing climate (Belcher et al. 2018). This research outlines the construction of a tool to visualise the impacts of climate change on water availability in part of China that is typically water scarce, using models developed using the Soil Water Assessment Toolkit (SWAT). A model of the Upper Yellow River (UYR) was developed to demonstrate the impact of climate change on river levels in the catchment based on climate variables. The rainfall-runoff model was based on climate predictions from the CMIP5 assessment HadGEM3-GC3.05 climate model and incorporated information about water resource allocations for different administrative regions of the catchment The general climate trend for the region is that it is expected to become significantly warmer. The total amount of precipitation is likely to be about the same, and yet it is expected that overall, the catchment will become significantly drier over time as winter shortens and summer lengthens. The outputs from the model reflect the changes in climate variables. The uncertainties were communicated via a Web based tool. Water resource managers in China helped to coproduce the tool by participating in workshops and providing feedback on prototypes. The workshops helped scientists and water resource managers to communicate about climate change impacts on water resources and water resource management

Wind power in China - Dream or reality?

After tremendous growth of wind power generation capacity in recent years, China now has 44.7 GW of wind-derived power. Despite the recent growth rates and promises of a bright future, two important issues - the capability of the grid infrastructure and the availability of backup systems - must be critically discussed and tackled in the medium term. The study shows that only a relatively small share of investment goes towards improving and extending the electricity infrastructure which is a precondition for transmitting clean wind energy to the end users. In addition, the backup systems are either geographically too remote from the potential wind power sites or currently financially infeasible. Finally, the introduction of wind power to the coal-dominated energy production system is not problem-free. Frequent ramp ups and downs of coal-fired plants lead to lower energy efficiency and higher emissions, which are likely to negate some of the emission savings from wind power. The current power system is heavily reliant on independently acting but state-owned energy companies optimizing their part of the system, and this is partly incompatible with building a robust system supporting renewable energy technologies. Hence, strategic, top-down co-ordination and incentives to improve the overall electricity infrastructure is recommended

Truncating SRCAP variants outside the Floating-Harbor syndrome locus cause a distinct neurodevelopmental disorder with a specific DNA methylation signature

Truncating variants in exons 33 and 34 of the SNF2-related CREBBP activator protein (SRCAP) gene cause the neurodevelopmental disorder (NDD) Floating-Harbor syndrome (FLHS), characterized by short stature, speech delay, and facial dysmorphism. Here, we present a cohort of 33 individuals with clinical features distinct from FLHS and truncating (mostly de novo) SRCAP variants either proximal (n = 28) or distal (n = 5) to the FLHS locus. Detailed clinical characterization of the proximal SRCAP individuals identified shared characteristics: developmental delay with or without intellectual disability, behavioral and psychiatric problems, non-specific facial features, musculoskeletal issues, and hypotonia. Because FLHS is known to be associated with a unique set of DNA methylation (DNAm) changes in blood, a DNAm signature, we investigated whether there was a distinct signature associated with our affected individuals. A machine-learning model, based on the FLHS DNAm signature, negatively classified all our tested subjects. Comparing proximal variants with typically developing controls, we identified a DNAm signature distinct from the FLHS signature. Based on the DNAm and clinical data, we refer to the condition as "non-FLHS SRCAP-related NDD.'' All five distal variants classified negatively using the FLHS DNAm model while two classified positively using the proximal model. This suggests divergent pathogenicity of these variants, though clinically the distal group presented with NDD, similar to the proximal SRCAP group. In summary, for SRCAP, there is a clear relationship between variant location, DNAm profile, and clinical phenotype. These results highlight the power of combined epigenetic, molecular, and clinical studies to identify and characterize genotype-epigenotype-phenotype correlations.Genetics of disease, diagnosis and treatmen

Demographic Change and Future Transport Demand: An Analysis of the British Situation 1989-2006

INTRODUCTION The planning of transport infrastructure requires as one ingredient sets of forecasts of transport demand. One of the factors that influences transport demand is the composition of the population in terms of person types, with considerable variation in trip making and trip distances between persons by age, sex, economic position, car availability and income (Siu et a1 1994). Normally, attention is paid to the way trip rates for each person category are changing as a result of income or car availability changes. However; the irge and sex structure of the population is also changing and may have influence on future trip making. Also of potential importance is the redistribution of the population over time, predominantly in the direction of lower density areas, which can have very different model mixes from higher density areas. This paper describes work that attempts to link conventional category analysis based trip forecasting with knowledge of the changing demographic and geographic make-up of the British population. This should, in principle, be an easy task. Trip rates and trip mileages can be computed from one or more National Travel Surveys (NTS) for a highly diagnostic person classification. These trip rates are then trended or a scenario developed, and the forecast trip rates or mileages applied to the forecast population in each category to yield forecasts of the number of trips to be expected in the future, under the assumptions used in the two component forecasts. The 1985/86 NTS dataset is used in this study. (CONTINUES..

Energy-economic planning amd assessment in developing countries The design and exploration of an energy modelling approach

SIGLEAvailable from British Library Document Supply Centre- DSC:D89033 / BLDSC - British Library Document Supply CentreGBUnited Kingdo

Traction power system simulation in electrified railways

Electricity has been the major source of power in most railway systems. Reliable, efficient and safe power distribution to the trains is vitally important to the overall quality of railway service. Like any large-scale engineering system, design, operation and planning of traction power systems rely heavily on computer simulation. This paper reviews the major features on modelling and the general practices for traction power system simulation; and introduces the development of the latest simulation approach with discussions on simulation results and practical applications. Remarks will also be given on the future challenges on traction power system simulation

Probabilistic load flow in AC electrified railways

System analysis within the traction power system is vital to the design and operation of an electrified railway. Loads in traction power systems are often characterised by their mobility, wide range of power variations, regeneration and service dependence. In addition, the feeding systems may take different forms in AC electrified railways. Comprehensive system studies are usually carried out by computer simulation. A number of traction power simulators have been available and they allow calculation of electrical interaction among trains and deterministic solutions of the power network. In the paper, a different approach is presented to enable load-flow analysis on various feeding systems and service demands in AC railways by adopting probabilistic techniques. It is intended to provide a different viewpoint to the load condition. Simulation results are given to verify the probabilistic-load-flow models

Natural killer cell malignancies: clinicopathologic and molecular features

Malignancies of natural killer (NK) cells h ave increasingly been recognized as distinct clinicopathological entities. The tumor cells are characterized by an immunophenotype of CD2+, surface CD3-, cytoplasmic CD3e+, and CD56+. The T cell receptor gene is in germline configuration, and a consistent association with Epstein-Barr virus is demonstrable. Pa t h o l o g i c a l l y, the tumor cells show variable cytological appearances, with frequent angioinvasion and angiocentricity associated with zonal necrosis. Clinically, most cases affect the nasal cavity or other parts of the upper aerodigestive tract, and are referred to as nasal NK cell lymphoma. A minority involve extranasal sites such as the skin, gastrointestinal tract and testis, and are often referred to as ex t r a n a s a l NK cell lymphoma. A particularly aggressive form presents fulminantly as disseminated disease, sometimes with a leukemic phase, and is referred to as aggressive NK cell lymphoma/leukemia. Cytogenetic and molecular analysis have shown DNA losses at chromosomes 6q, 11q, 13q and 17p to be recurrent aberrations in NK cell malignancies. Frequent DNA gains are also found in chromosomes 1p, 6p, 11q, 12q, 17q, 19p, 20q, and Xp. These regions of DNA losses and gains should be targets for further inve s t i gation in order to understand the molecular pathogenesis of this lymphoma. Finally, optimal treatment modalities need to be determined, as all subtypes of NK cell malignancies are associated with a poor prognosis